Costa Rica has long ranked among the world's leading coffee producers and exporters, thanks to its volcanic soil, mild climate, and abundant rainfall. In recent years, however, persistent high temperatures and drought have been eroding its growing environment. In the Desamparados canton, a key production area in the Central Valley, some estates have seen yields fall by as much as 15%, and production for the 2024/25 harvest season is expected to drop 18% from the previous season. With water shortages during the flowering period, greater susceptibility to disease, aging trees, and labor shortages piling up, export volumes and foreign exchange earnings are coming under pressure. Faced with these challenges, the government has launched a low-carbon coffee program, while research institutions are promoting drought-resistant varieties and adaptive farming methods in an effort to cushion the impact of climate change. [more…]

The global climate anomalies triggered by El Niño continue to intensify, and the Panama Canal is facing a severe drought test. The navigation capacity of this golden waterway connecting the two oceans has declined sharply, affecting about 3% of global maritime trade, with exports of agricultural products such as coffee from Central America bearing the brunt. To alleviate canal congestion and insufficient capacity, the Panamanian government has launched a "multimodal dry canal" plan, attempting to open alternative routes using existing roads, railways, and port facilities. At the same time, the coffee tree reforestation project previously invested in by the canal authority is also progressing slowly. This article will sort out the specific impact of the drought on the canal and the coffee trade, and explain the operating concept and potential benefits of the new plan. [more…]

Today, when Arabica and Robusta absolutely dominate global coffee supply, a species once forgotten for its poor flavor—Liberica (Coffea liberica)—is re-entering researchers' view. From 2021 to 2022, climate change-induced droughts tightened coffee inventories and sent prices soaring, with Arabica prices doubling in a short period. Facing the crisis of shrinking arable ranges, academia proposed three paths: relocating production areas, adjusting cultivation methods, and developing new crops. In December 2022, Nature Plants pointed out that Liberica might regain attention in an era of supply chain disruptions. One of its natural varieties, Excelsa, combines disease resistance, drought tolerance, low-temperature tolerance, and a flavor close to Arabica, and is being widely planted by coffee farmers in places such as Uganda. Front Street Coffee takes you through the full picture of this potential variety. [more…]

Brazil is experiencing its most severe drought since records began in 1950, with nearly 60% of the country affected, frequent forest fires in many areas, and major coffee-producing regions such as São Paulo and Minas Gerais suffering serious damage. Coffee trees are in their flowering period, and the drought and fires have exacerbated adverse growing conditions and may lead to reduced output in next year's new crop season. At the same time, domestic spot prices for Robusta in Brazil have surpassed those for Arabica, and international coffee prices remain high. This article will provide a detailed analysis of the impact of the drought and fires on Brazil's coffee industry and global prices. [more…]

The lingering effects of El Niño in 2023 have not yet subsided, and La Niña may make a comeback in the summer of 2024, leaving global coffee-producing regions caught in a double bind of extreme weather. Drought during Brazil's flowering period, water shortages on Vietnam's highlands, coexisting floods and droughts in Africa, and the threat of hurricanes in Central America—the production outlook for major growing regions is shrouded in uncertainty. At the same time, rising demand for Robusta in European and American markets, combined with reduced output in several producing countries, has already triggered sharp fluctuations in international coffee prices. This article will examine how climate is disrupting the coffee supply chain and analyze the key variables shaping price trends in the second half of the year. [more…]

Brazil's National Meteorological Agency recently issued a warning that the central region of the country will continue to experience dry conditions with little rain, and the dry season is more severe than in previous years. Currently, more than 3,000 cities are in varying degrees of drought, with over a thousand cities facing extreme or severe drought. Acre, Amazonas, and many other places have declared states of emergency, with frequent fires, falling river levels, and poor harvests of major agricultural products such as coffee. Brazil's largest coffee cooperative, Cooxupe, pointed out that many producing regions have gone more than three months without rainfall, and August rainfall is still expected to be zero. Coffee farmers are pinning their hopes on the return of rain when the dry season ends in September to October, but La Niña may once again disrupt the weather and threaten coffee production in the next crop season. Affected by this, international coffee prices remain high, and many European and American manufacturers have announced price increases. Front Street Coffee will continue to monitor developments in Brazilian producing regions and trends in the coffee market. [more…]

Since 2024, Brazil has been continuously hit by high temperatures, droughts, and severe fires, with large areas of forest and farmland destroyed, agriculture suffering heavy losses, and coffee-growing regions also deeply affected. Although southern Brazil recently received rainfall, the brief precipitation is unlikely to fundamentally ease the drought, and the outlook for coffee production in the new season remains bleak. At the same time, Brazil's coffee exports have performed strongly but are constrained by port logistics congestion, keeping international coffee prices persistently high. This article will review the multiple impacts of Brazil's fires and drought on the coffee industry and analyze current export and price trends. [more…]

Brazil is experiencing its worst drought in seventy years, with the major coffee-growing states of São Paulo and Minas Gerais hit especially hard. Wildfires have consumed large numbers of coffee plantations, with some estates losing nearly half their harvest, and the agriculture department estimates losses exceeding 2 billion reais. At the same time, Brazil's coffee exports hit a record high in August, driven mainly by stockpiling demand ahead of the EU's imminent implementation of the EUDR. Rabobank expects coffee prices to remain high through the end of the year, while the production outlook for the next crop season is full of uncertainty. This article will review the drought's comprehensive impact on Brazil's coffee industry and follow Front Street Coffee's ongoing tracking of developments in the producing regions. [more…]

Recently, the World Meteorological Organization warned that extreme weather occurs frequently, and climate change is having a heavy impact on Asia. At present, in some Asian countries such as China and Dubai and other cities, extreme weather such as [more…]

Assam is the world's largest tea-producing region, contributing one-fifth of global output and half of India's tea, and supporting about 1.2 million workers. Yet disruptions to rainfall and temperature patterns are putting this land under growing pressure—droughts in Africa, intense rainfall erosion in India, and the accelerating melting of Himalayan glaciers are all sounding alarms at the macro level. But what truly affects each tea leaf is often a more micro-level climate variable. A study based on 82 tea gardens spanning 2004 to 2013 reveals how short-term weather fluctuations directly influence yields. This article will walk you through these findings and what adaptive measures tea gardens can take. Front Street Coffee has always paid attention to the long-term impact of climate change in producing regions on the flavor in the cup. [more…]

The latest meteorological forecasts indicate that the El Niño condition is expected to come to an end around April 2024. After a brief neutral phase, La Niña may form between June and August and persist through the second half of the year. Previously, El Niño brought extreme weather such as heavy rain, drought, and high temperatures to coffee-growing regions in Brazil, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and other places, causing reduced production and driving up international coffee prices. As La Niña takes over, southeastern Brazil may face reduced rainfall and the risk of frost, while Indonesia may experience heavy rainfall and even floods, and the coffee berry harvest may be hit again. Front Street Coffee will also continue to monitor the impact of climate change in producing regions on the coffee supply chain. [more…]

As the world's fourth-largest coffee producer, Indonesia is facing severe climate challenges. From the relentless downpours brought by La Niña to the severe droughts triggered by El Niño, extreme weather has alternately battered coffee-growing regions, causing poor development of coffee flowers, withered leaves, and worsening pests and diseases. Industry insiders predict that Indonesia's total coffee production this season will plummet to less than 10 million bags, the lowest level in more than a decade. Smallholder farmers in low-altitude growing regions are bearing the brunt, with some even facing the prospect of a total crop failure. At the same time, soaring rice prices have prompted the government to encourage farmers to switch to rice cultivation, while the slow renewal of coffee trees further constrains any recovery in production capacity. Climate change could also lead to a sharp reduction in Indonesia's land suitable for coffee cultivation. Front Street Coffee will continue to follow subsequent developments in this growing region. [more…]

StoneX has released its first estimate for Brazil's 2025/26 coffee crop, projecting total production at approximately 65.6 million bags, a slight decrease of 0.4% from the previous year. Arabica is expected to decline by 10.5% to 40 million bags, while Robusta is forecast to increase by 20.9% to 25.6 million bags, though the gain in Robusta will not be enough to offset the shortfall in Arabica. The decline is mainly attributed to unfavorable weather in Minas Gerais and São Paulo: first severe drought, followed by storms and strong winds. Soil moisture deficit in Minas Gerais reached its second-highest level on record, with October rainfall far below normal, and future hot and dry conditions may continue to affect the fruit-setting stage. Meanwhile, improved rainfall in Espírito Santo is benefiting Robusta. The European Parliament's decision to delay EUDR implementation by one year also provides a buffer period for Brazil's coffee exports. [more…]

Colombia, as the world's third-largest coffee producer, has recently received a series of favorable news: a bank report shows significant growth in agricultural output and announces an investment of 22 billion Colombian pesos to support agricultural development. Meanwhile, the country's coffee production is expected to reach 12.53 million bags in the 2023/24 season, a year-on-year increase of 18%, and is expected to exceed 13 million bags in the 2024/25 season. However, drought, forest fires, rising cultivation costs, internal conflict, and the possible arrival of La Niña still bring many uncertainties to the coffee industry. This article will review the latest developments and potential risks in Colombia's coffee industry. [more…]

The latest report from the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council shows that although about 2.1 million bags of coffee beans were stranded at ports due to logistics problems at the end of September, Brazil's coffee exports in October still bucked the trend to hit a monthly record high of 4.926 million bags, up 11.6% year on year, with total export value reaching US$1.393 billion. Germany became the largest importer of Brazilian coffee beans in the first 10 months of this year, importing 6.64 million bags in total, accounting for 23.9%. However, multiple factors such as port congestion, ship delays, historic drought and forest fires, and the depreciation of the real are still constraining the subsequent development of Brazil's coffee industry, and the production and export prospects for the new crop season face uncertainty. [more…]

As the world's largest coffee producer, Brazil has recently seen its domestic coffee spot prices soar to their highest level in nearly 26 years. Affected by drought and high temperatures, coffee production has fallen sharply, and compounded by the threat of a U.S. port strike and uncertainty over tariff policies, the market supply outlook is becoming increasingly unclear. This article will review Brazil's coffee price trends, the damage in producing regions, disagreements over production forecasts, and the multiple effects of macroeconomic factors on the coffee market, helping readers gain a comprehensive understanding of the complex situation currently facing Brazil's coffee industry. [more…]

Panama's National Adaptation Plan (NAP) project recently released a report that, using global models and nearly 30 years of meteorological data, simulated the country's climate trajectory for 2050 to 2070. The results show that reduced rainfall and rising temperatures will directly impact Panama's agricultural production, especially the cultivation and trade of export crops such as coffee and bananas. At the same time, shipping through the Panama Canal and hydroelectric power generation will also face greater pressure due to drought. This article will walk you through the report's core findings and their potential impact on the coffee industry. [more…]

The latest March export report released by the National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia (FNC) shows that although coffee production and export volume for the month increased compared with the same period last year, both declined month-on-month, mainly due to drought weather. At the same time, Colombia's president previously proposed that the state should take over the FNC, sparking industry controversy, while the government has so far taken no practical action. Coffee growers' committees from 15 provinces across the country jointly spoke out, pointing out that the coffee industry is facing a difficult period and calling on the government to provide necessary assistance rather than encourage division. This article will provide a detailed interpretation of the report data, climate impacts and policy controversies, and bring related recommendations from Front Street Coffee. [more…]

In the face of the ongoing impact of rising global temperatures and frequent extreme weather on coffee cultivation, Starbucks has announced that it will invest in a new farm in each of Costa Rica and Guatemala to strengthen the climate resilience of its coffee supply chain. In recent years, frost and drought in Brazil have caused Arabica bean prices to soar, and coffee consumer prices have risen 18% within five years. As a buyer of about 3% of the world's coffee beans, Starbucks is using its own farms to research high-yield, disease-resistant hybrid varieties adapted to different altitudes and soils. The new farms will also introduce drones and mechanized technology to address labor shortages in Latin America, and the company plans to continue expanding its agricultural footprint in Africa and Asia in the future. [more…]

Recently, robusta coffee prices have continued to run at high levels, driven both by the Red Sea crisis pushing up shipping costs and by El Niño weather causing production declines in many countries. As an important producing region, Indonesia has seen its Sumatra robusta premium widen from an earlier 450 USD to 500-520 USD this week. At the same time, the country is facing multiple pressures, including frequent volcanic eruptions, drying river basins, high fertilizer prices, and soil degradation, and industry insiders worry that coffee-growing areas will be further affected. This article reviews the challenges and price trends currently facing Indonesia's coffee industry, and brings Front Street Coffee's continued attention to developments in the producing region. [more…]